Reform UK Consolidates 28-33% Polling Lead as Wealth Tax Debate Splits Labour and Burnham Eyes Westminster Return

Reform UK consolidated its polling lead at between 28% and 33% nationally in surveys published on Wednesday 27 May 2026, even as Sir Tony Blair’s broadside against the Labour government opened up a separate political flank. Nigel Farage’s party now leads in seven of the ten most recent published polls, ahead of both Labour (typically 21-24%) and the Conservatives (typically 18-23%). Reform UK’s structural advantage in non-metropolitan England has reshaped the four-nation political landscape at a speed few analysts predicted at the time of the July 2024 general election.

The Reform UK arithmetic

Polling averages compiled by Politico Europe and Britain Elects on 27 May place Reform UK between 28% and 33%, Labour at 22-24%, the Conservatives at 19-22%, the Liberal Democrats at 12-14%, the Greens at 7-9%, and the SNP at 3-4% nationally. Under Westminster’s first-past-the-post system, this translates into projections of between 150 and 195 Reform UK seats at a general election — making the party the largest single bloc but well short of majority territory. The most likely outcome under current polling is a hung Parliament in which Reform UK is the largest party but no clear coalition emerges.

The wealth tax debate

Inside the Labour Party, the wealth tax debate has accelerated sharply over the past 48 hours. The Tribune Group of MPs published an open letter on Wednesday morning urging Chancellor Rachel Reeves to consider a 2% wealth tax on net assets above £10 million, projecting annual revenues of £24 billion. Sir Keir Starmer’s Number 10 quickly pushed back, with the Prime Minister’s official spokesperson stating „we don’t plan to introduce a wealth tax”. The intervention by Sir Tony Blair earlier in the day, criticising Labour’s tax trajectory, complicates the Chancellor’s positioning ahead of the autumn budget.

Burnham’s Makerfield path

The decision by the Labour National Executive Committee on 15 May to approve Andy Burnham’s candidacy for the Makerfield by-election remains the single most consequential domestic political development of the past month. The seat fell vacant on 14 May following the resignation of Josh Simons MP. Burnham, the popular Greater Manchester Mayor, declared his intent to stand within hours of Simons’s resignation, and the NEC’s decision to permit the candidacy — in contrast to its 2024 obstruction — has formally opened a Westminster route for him within months. Burnham himself has been careful not to position the candidacy as a leadership pitch, but no serious observer interprets it otherwise.

The Conservative-Reform UK realignment

The mathematical reality of the polls has accelerated quiet conversations between Conservative and Reform UK strategists about post-election arrangements. Several backbench Conservative MPs have publicly indicated they would consider defection to Reform UK, though the formal Conservative leadership under Kemi Badenoch continues to reject any electoral pact. Reform UK’s recent successful absorption of several Conservative defectors at the constituency level — including former minister Andrea Jenkyns and ex-MP Lee Anderson — has demonstrated the practical feasibility of realignment at scale.

Scotland and the SNP collapse

The Scottish dimension provides one of the few areas where Labour retains a structural advantage. Recent Scottish polling places Labour comfortably ahead of the Scottish National Party for Westminster seats, with the SNP polling at 24-26% (down from 45% in 2019) and Labour at 33-36%. The 2026 Scottish Parliament elections, scheduled for May 2026 and now imminent, are expected to deliver a Labour victory under Anas Sarwar — a result that would significantly complicate Reform UK’s national vote calculation, given Reform UK’s negligible presence in Scotland.

Wales and Northern Ireland

In Wales, the 2026 Welsh Parliament elections, also scheduled for May, are projected to produce a Plaid Cymru-Labour cooperation arrangement, with Reform UK gaining its first Welsh seats. In Northern Ireland, the May 2026 council elections delivered a Sinn Féin-led coalition with the SDLP, while the DUP’s vote share continued to slide. The four-nation picture, in aggregate, is one of accelerating divergence rather than national consolidation around any single party.

The Burnham-versus-Streeting battle

The Labour leadership succession question has crystallised around two principal contenders: Andy Burnham, positioning from the soft-left, and Wes Streeting, positioning from Blair-aligned modernising centrism. The two are friends but represent strategically distinct routes for the party. Burnham would seek to win back the so-called „red wall” with a more interventionist economic platform; Streeting would seek to compete with Reform UK on cultural issues and with the Liberal Democrats on professional middle-class voters. Both, in their own way, represent a rejection of the Starmer status quo.

What to watch over the next week

The single most consequential moment in the coming week is the Labour parliamentary party meeting on Thursday 28 May, where the leadership question will be discussed in the wake of the Blair intervention. The Makerfield by-election timing has not yet been formally set but is expected for late June or early July. The May 2026 Scottish, Welsh and English council results will be processed politically through to the autumn party conferences, where the leadership question may well come to a head. Reform UK’s annual conference, scheduled for late September, will provide Farage with a platform to consolidate his polling advantage into a coherent governing programme.