Andy Burnham faces economic triple threat in Greater Manchester

Andy Burnham is staring down one of the toughest economic moments Greater Manchester has faced in years. Jobs are disappearing, borrowing costs are climbing, and pressure to raise local taxes is growing — all at once.

A jobs market under serious strain

The numbers aren’t pretty. Unemployment across Greater Manchester has crept up to around 5.2%, notably above the national average of 4.4%. Some of that is structural — old industries hollowed out, new ones slow to replace them. But recent months have brought fresh anxiety, with several large employers signalling redundancies or scaled-back hiring plans in the logistics and retail sectors that the region heavily depends on.

Burnham has long argued that devolution gives him the tools to tackle this. But critics say those tools are blunt, underfunded, and too dependent on decisions made in Westminster. So far, the mayor’s office has pointed to investment in clean energy jobs and the expanded Bee Network transport system as evidence of progress. Yet for workers in Wigan or Oldham watching their shifts get cut, that can feel like a long way off.

Borrowing headaches and tight finances

Greater Manchester’s Combined Authority borrowed heavily to fund infrastructure — including the tram network and regeneration projects — when interest rates were low. That looked sensible at the time. It doesn’t look quite so clever now.

Debt servicing costs have jumped significantly as rates stayed higher for longer than most economists predicted. The authority’s budget is under real pressure, with some estimates suggesting the financing burden has increased by tens of millions of pounds over a rolling five-year period.

“We’re managing a very difficult financial position, like every major city-region in the country,” one senior official at the Combined Authority said. “But we’re not stepping back from our commitments to residents.”

Still, something has to give. Capital project timelines are being reviewed, and there’s internal debate about which commitments can realistically be maintained.

The tax question nobody wants to answer

And then there’s the question of council tax. Burnham’s precept — the portion of council tax bills that goes to the mayoral authority — has risen in recent years and looks set to rise again. For households already squeezed by the cost of living, that’s a genuinely uncomfortable conversation.

The mayor has consistently argued he has no choice. Central government funding hasn’t kept pace with demand, particularly in areas like policing, transport subsidies, and adult social care support. But opponents, including local Conservatives, say the burden on ordinary families has become unsustainable.

The political risk is real. Burnham remains popular, but popularity isn’t unlimited.

What comes next

Burnham is expected to set out a revised economic strategy before the end of the year, with a particular focus on skills training and attracting investment in green industries. Whether that’s enough to shift the dial on unemployment — or ease the financial squeeze — remains genuinely uncertain.

Greater Manchester is a region with real ambition. But ambition, right now, is having a hard time paying the bills.