Andy Burnham’s fiscal balancing act puts Greater Manchester on edge

Andy Burnham’s administration is walking a financial tightrope, with senior figures inside Greater Manchester Combined Authority openly acknowledging they can’t afford to get the numbers wrong. The mayor’s team is under mounting pressure to deliver ambitious public services while keeping spending in check — and they know it.

A budget stretched in every direction

Greater Manchester’s combined authority is managing a budget that runs into billions, covering transport, housing, and integrated health and social care. But the fiscal headroom is narrowing. Inflation hit public sector contracts hard over the past two years, and while central government settlements have improved slightly, they haven’t kept pace with demand. One senior official close to the mayor’s office put it plainly: “We need to be careful. There’s genuine ambition here, but ambition costs money we’re still trying to find.”

That tension is real. Burnham has staked much of his political identity on a London-style integrated transport network — the Bee Network — which launched its bus franchising phase in 2023. Phase two expansions are planned, but each new route and contract adds to a recurring cost base that doesn’t disappear when grant funding dries up.

The Bee Network’s price tag

Running franchised buses across Greater Manchester’s 10 boroughs costs roughly £250 million annually once operational subsidies and infrastructure are factored in. That’s a significant commitment. And unlike one-off capital projects, it’s the kind of ongoing expenditure that locks future administrations in too. So the question isn’t just whether the current budget holds — it’s whether the model is sustainable five or ten years from now.

Burnham’s team argues it is, pointing to passenger growth figures and reduced car dependency as longer-term economic benefits. But critics, including some within local government finance circles, warn that ridership projections have a history of optimism.

Devolution’s double-edged sword

Greater Manchester has more fiscal autonomy than most English regions outside London. That’s partly a triumph — it means decisions get made locally rather than waiting on Whitehall. But it also means when things go wrong, there’s nowhere else to point the finger. The Greater Manchester mayor can’t easily blame central government for a shortfall he signed off on.

This is the bind Burnham finds himself in heading toward 2025 and beyond. The devolution deal that empowered him also exposed him.

Still, his team isn’t in panic mode. Officials say they’ve built contingency reserves into the medium-term financial plan and are conducting a rolling review of all discretionary spending lines. Whether that’s enough depends heavily on what the next government spending review brings — and nobody’s certain about that yet.

What comes next

The next twelve months will be telling. Greater Manchester is expected to publish a revised financial strategy before spring, which will lay out where savings are being found and which programmes face scaling back. Burnham’s political future, at least at the regional level, may hinge on whether he can prove that progressive devolution and fiscal discipline aren’t mutually exclusive.