Tesco says weather drives sales more than World Cup fever

Britain’s biggest supermarket has delivered a blunt assessment of what really moves its tills: not football, not major sporting events, but the simple question of whether it’s warm enough to fire up a barbecue. Tesco reported slowing sales growth this week, with UK like-for-like sales rising 3.4% in the 13 weeks to late November — down from 4.6% the previous quarter — and executives were quick to point to the weather as the dominant force behind the numbers.

Sun sells more than soccer

Chief executive Ken Murphy told analysts that the chain’s performance is far more sensitive to temperature and sunshine than to any sporting calendar. “A warm weekend will do more for our food sales than a World Cup,” one senior company official noted during the results briefing. And the data backs that up. The summer months, when dry and hot, drove outsized volumes in fresh food, soft drinks and outdoor dining ranges. When the skies turned grey, those categories stalled almost immediately.

It’s a candid admission from a retailer that spent heavily on World Cup promotions in past years, stocking up on beer, snacks and party food in anticipation of a sales surge that, historically, has been modest at best.

Growth is slowing but the numbers aren’t dire

Tesco’s 3.4% growth figure still beats most of its rivals. But investors had grown used to stronger quarters, and the deceleration was enough to nudge shares lower in early trading. The retailer reported group sales of just over £15.5 billion for the period, with food inflation continuing to ease — now sitting below 2% across most categories, compared to the double-digit spikes that hammered household budgets two years ago.

Still, volume growth remains sluggish. Shoppers are buying more items than they were at the peak of the cost-of-living squeeze, but they’re trading more carefully, mixing branded goods with Tesco’s own-label lines at a rate that keeps margins tight.

Competition isn’t going away

Aldi and Lidl continue to chip away at the market. The German discounters now hold a combined UK grocery share of roughly 18%, and both recorded stronger growth rates than the big four supermarkets in the same period. Tesco has responded by investing in price matching on key lines and expanding its Clubcard Prices scheme, which now covers more than 8,000 products.

So the pressure from below isn’t easing. And at the premium end, Marks & Spencer’s food halls are pulling in shoppers who might once have filled their trolleys at Tesco’s larger superstores.

What comes next

Executives flagged cautious optimism for the Christmas trading period, pointing to early strong sales in festive confectionery and premium ready meals. But they didn’t overclaim. Weather in December — particularly around the key pre-Christmas shopping weekends — will, as ever, play an outsize role. A cold, dry December tends to drive footfall. A wet one keeps people home and nudges them toward online delivery slots.

For a retailer of Tesco’s scale, that dependence on the forecast might sound surprising. But that’s the grocery business.