Badenoch walks tightrope as Tories risk ‘nasty’ image

Kemi Badenoch enters the Conservative conference in Birmingham this Sunday with a party more upbeat and unified than a year ago, but still polling below its disastrous 2024 election result. MPs broadly agree she is doing well as leader, yet some warn the mood is “overhyped” given the party remains a distant third in the polls.

One Conservative MP said, “The mood is better but the facts are still very poor,” adding that an election tomorrow would mean a heavy defeat. The patience of MPs stems from a fractured political landscape and the rise of Reform UK, which has kept Badenoch’s position secure for now.

Focus on Reform voters raises fears of ‘nasty party’ return

But there is growing concern among some Tories that the dogged focus on winning back Farage and Reform supporters leaves little for centrist voters, posing political and reputational risks. A shadow minister said, “We need to be attracting as many voters who left us for the Lib Dems as Reform, and I don’t personally think we have got the balance right.” The same minister warned the party risks being seen as “the nasty party again.”

The phrase was coined by Theresa May in 2002, then party chair, who cautioned activists against a narrow voter base and punitive policies targeting other parts of society. Badenoch has prioritised core policy and walked away from culture war arguments, but recent Tory pledges include barring non-Britons from social housing, stripping UK citizenship from dual nationals convicted of serious crimes, and cutting some benefits to “subsistence” level with restrictions on alcohol and tobacco spending. The main pre-conference policy is slashing overseas aid to pay for 50,000 new prison places.

One Conservative MP said they had not heard colleagues worried about “nasty party stuff,” noting many constituents are very worried about welfare costs. The paradox of Badenoch’s tenure is a relative lack of open dissent, even on the commitment to the ECHR. Many MPs respect her taking time over decisions and making her case, including a 185-page report by shadow attorney general David Wolfson before the ECHR plan.

Centrist silence and the road ahead

The centrist One Nation group has largely faded: most are outside parliament, lying low on backbenches, or co-opted into the Badenoch project. Tom Tugendhat was made shadow foreign secretary in a recent mini-reshuffle. A centrist MP said, “The thing about the One Nation group is that we never actually did anything,” adding that now “everybody seems to be pulling together” with no factions.

Public dissent often comes from Prosper UK, a centrist grouping launched earlier this year by Andy Street and Ruth Davidson. David Gauke, former cabinet minister and vice-chair of Prosper UK, said Badenoch must pay more attention to “politically homeless” moderate Tories who helped the Lib Dems win dozens of seats in southern England in 2024. He warned there is no route to a Conservative majority without winning back seats in Oxfordshire, Surrey, and other home counties.

Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London, said Badenoch’s calculation seemed to be to stop Reform running riot, hope Reform implodes, and Andy Burnham’s government slumps. “It is a risk, but what else have they got?” he said. But Bale added, “They seem to be overstating the extent to which voters think even Badenoch is a good thing. She’s still in negative territory.” He noted the party has gone from 24% of the vote in 2024 to just over 20% now, asking, “If this is what success looks like, I’d love to know what failure is.”