Ukraine’s First EU Cluster Within Reach as Hungary’s New Pro-EU Government Eases the Orban-Era Veto

The opening of the first cluster in Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations is now expected to be within reach at the European Council of 23-24 June 2026, following the change of government in Hungary that has removed the single largest obstacle to enlargement. As of early June, the question in Brussels has shifted from whether Budapest will block progress to how fast the process can now move.

Hungary’s pro-EU turn changes the equation

The decisive factor is the landslide victory of Peter Magyar’s centre-right, pro-European Tisza party in Hungary’s April 2026 election, which ended Viktor Orban’s sixteen years in power. Magyar, who took office as prime minister on 9 May 2026, has pledged to make Hungary a constructive EU and NATO partner. His government has not lifted every reservation, however: Magyar has insisted that Ukraine guarantee the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia the same rights enjoyed by minorities in other EU states, a condition now at the centre of technical consultations between Budapest and Kyiv.

A June timeline takes shape

Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos has indicated that the first negotiating cluster, the Fundamentals, could be opened in June under the Cyprus rotating presidency, with the remaining five clusters following by July once Ireland takes over the chair. Ukraine completed its screening process in September 2025 and is, on the Commission’s assessment, ready to open all clusters. Kyiv is pressing for more: Deputy Prime Minister for European integration Taras Kachka told Euronews that „all six clusters can be open already in June”, warning that Ukraine is already behind its own timeline.

Moldova moves in parallel

The Moldovan file remains coupled with Ukraine’s in the Commission’s June package. Chisinau has consistently been ahead of Kyiv on benchmark assessments, and the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, examining draft reports this week, has commended Moldova’s steady reform progress while warning of continued Russian interference. The Parliament’s draft text on Ukraine praises the government’s wartime institutional efforts while urging further action on the rule of law and anti-corruption.

The Western Balkans question

The acceleration for Ukraine and Moldova revives long-standing frustrations in the Western Balkans, where North Macedonia’s process remains at a standstill and Serbia faces concerns over the rule of law and its relations with Kosovo. To contain the risk of procedural blockages, the Commission is expected to bundle enlargement progress into a single package, allowing leaders to address Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans together at the June summit.

What to watch through June

The immediate sequence runs through the Foreign Affairs Council and Coreper preparations toward the 23-24 June European Council, the central test of whether the new political arithmetic translates into a concrete cluster opening. The outstanding variables are the outcome of the Budapest-Kyiv consultations on minority rights and whether member states accept the Commission’s bundled package. For the first time since candidate status was granted in 2022, the institutional path looks open rather than blocked.