Eurostat: Fragile Industrial Rebound, Still Down 2.1% YoY
Industrial production in the euro area rose by 0.2% and across the EU as a whole by 0.8% in March 2026 compared with February, according to initial estimates published by Eurostat on Tuesday 13 May 2026. Whilst the data confirm a fragile sequential recovery, the annual comparison remains firmly in negative territory, with output down 2.1% in the euro area and 1.0% in the EU compared with March 2025.
The breakdown by main grouping
Intermediate goods production rose by 0.9%, capital goods by 1.1%, and durable consumer goods by 0.5%. Energy production fell by 1.5%, reflecting lower demand owing to milder spring weather and continued constraints on Russian gas imports. The sharpest fall was in non-durable consumer goods, down 4.5%.
Member-State picture
The largest monthly increases were recorded in Denmark (+8.4%), Bulgaria (+5.8%) and Poland (+5.4%). The largest decreases were seen in Belgium (-3.0%), Estonia (-2.6%) and Sweden (-1.9%). The annual comparison paints a starker picture: the largest year-on-year falls were in Ireland (-19.4%), Luxembourg (-5.7%) and Malta. Amongst the larger member states, Germany and Italy continue to bear the brunt of the energy shock.
Revisions and trajectory
The release also includes notable revisions: the monthly change for February 2026 has been revised from +0.4% to +0.2% in both the euro area and the EU. Successive downward revisions of this nature suggest the initial April print, due in mid-June, will also be subject to material adjustment.
Policy implications
The Commission’s Spring 2026 Economic Forecast is due on 21 May 2026. The ECB, in its March 2026 projections, had already revised the euro area 2026 growth forecast downwards to 0.9% from 1.2%, and the 2026 inflation forecast upwards to 2.6% from 1.9%. The next ECB meeting on 4 June will be the first to fully integrate post-Iran-war data.
